Endogenous energy efficiency and rebound effect in the transportation sector: Evidence from China

The transportation industry is one of the main energy consumers, thus, the effectiveness of energy conservation efforts in this industry exerts an important impact on the sustainable development of both economy and society. Technological progress is commonly considered to be a key tool for energy saving and emission reduction; however, its own energy saving effect may be weakened by the rebound effect. Thus, the accurate identification of the rebound effect in the transportation sector is of great practical significance. Based on the idea of "learning by doing", this study constructed a rebound effect model under the framework of endogenous growth theory. Furthermore, the nonlinear least squares method is used to measure the rebound effect of the transportation sector of 30 Chinese provinces from 2003 to 2017. The results show that the mean short-term rebound effect of China's transportation sector is 82%, while the mean long-term rebound effect is 123%. From a regional perspective, both the short-term and long-term rebound effects of China's transportation sector follow a decreasing trend from eastern to western regions. Mechanistically, the rebound effect of China's transportation sector is primarily driven by factor substitution, and the resulting substitution effect contributes 86% to the rebound effect. This study provides policy implications for the formulation and implementation of energy policies in the transportation sector.