A James Webb Space Telescope NIRCam deep field simplified simulation using a geometric-focused ensemble approach

Recent studies predict the JWST's deep field image using a deterministic approach based on interpolating recent observational measurements. A simplified geometric- focused deep field simulation is presented using an ensemble approach to demonstrate the high variability in results due to the uncertainty ranges of observational measure- ments. Two sets of ensemble simulations were conducted: a parameter sensitivity ensemble, and a 90-member full ensemble, each calculating the percentage of the im- age occupied by galaxies. The estimated number of unseen galaxies in the Hubble Ultra-Deep Field (HUDF) was found to provide the largest variability of results. The Apparent Galaxy Wall (AGW) effect is introduced as ≥50%. A one-way one-sample t-test was conducted concluding the JWST is not likely to observe the AGW effect with an estimated galaxy spatial coverage percentage ranging from 15.22 to 78.92% or 47.07% ± 31.85 but does not fully rule it out. Potential impacts of the AGW effect being observed are discussed.