Operational Flare Forecasting Benchmarks and Initial Performance Comparisons
Abstract
We present here select preliminary results from a recent workshop, "Benchmarks for Operational Solar Flare Forecasts" held at the Institute for Sun-Earth Environmental Research (ISEE) in Nagoya, Japan, in late 2017. Numerous methods were tested in a head-to-head operational forecasting performance exercise. Results are quantified using standard validation metrics, with a preference for metrics based on the probabilistic forecasts (rather than categorical results which are impacted by probability thresholds). We present here a preliminary analysis of the performance impacts of general method attributes, addressing questions centered on ``which approaches demonstrate improvement in operational performance, and which approaches do not?''
- Publication:
-
42nd COSPAR Scientific Assembly
- Pub Date:
- July 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018cosp...42E1978L