An Early Prediction of Sunspot Cycle 25
Abstract
The Sun's magnetic activity governs our space environment, creates space weather and impacts our technologies and climate. With increasing reliance on space- and ground-based technologies that are subject to space weather, the need to be able to forecast the future activity of the Sun has assumed increasing importance. However, such long-range, decadal-scale space weather prediction has remained a great challenge as evident in the diverging forecasts for solar cycle 24. Based on recently acquired understanding of the physics of solar cycle predictability, we have devised a scheme to extend the forecasting window of solar cycles. Utilizing this we present an early forecast for sunspot cycle 25 which would be of use for space mission planning, satellite life-time estimates, and assessment of the long-term impacts of space weather on technological assets and planetary atmospheres.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2017
- Bibcode:
- 2017AGUFMSH21A2639N
- Keywords:
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- 4305 Space weather;
- NATURAL HAZARDS;
- 7594 Instruments and techniques;
- SOLAR PHYSICS;
- ASTROPHYSICS;
- AND ASTRONOMY;
- 7924 Forecasting;
- SPACE WEATHER;
- 7999 General or miscellaneous;
- SPACE WEATHER