Estimating Past Temperature Change in Antarctica Based on Ice Core Stable Water Isotope Diffusion

The magnitude of the last glacial-interglacial transition is a key target for constraining climate sensitivity on long timescales. Ice core proxy records and general circulation models (GCMs) both provide insight on the magnitude of climate change through the last glacial-interglacial transition, but appear to provide different answers. In particular, the magnitude of the glacial-interglacial temperature change reconstructed from East Antarctic ice-core water-isotope records is greater ( 9 degrees C) than that from most GCM simulations ( 6 degrees C). A possible source of this difference is error in the linear-scaling of water isotopes to temperature. We employ a novel, nonlinear temperature-reconstruction technique using the physics of water-isotope diffusion to infer past temperature. Based on new, ice-core data from the South Pole, this diffusion technique suggests East Antarctic temperature change was smaller than previously thought. We are able to confirm this result using a simple, water-isotope fractionation model to nonlinearly reconstruct temperature change at ice core locations across Antarctica based on combined oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios. Both methods produce a temperature change of 6 degrees C for South Pole, agreeing with GCM results for East Antarctica. Furthermore, both produce much larger changes in West Antarctica, also in agreement with GCM results and independent borehole thermometry. These results support the fidelity of GCMs in simulating last glacial maximum climate, and contradict the idea, based on previous work, that the climate sensitivity of current GCMs is too low.