Investigating a Sulphate-Nitrate Chemical Indirect Effect over Europe from 1980-2010

Sulphur dioxide emission reductions have been successful in reducing surface sulphate concentrations over Europe between 1980 and 2010, with positive implications for air quality and human health. However the response of nitrate aerosol concentrations to declining NOx emissions has been non-linear. Previous studies have indicated that decreasing ammonium sulphate formation, as a result of SO2 emission reduction, may be partly responsible for this non-linearity by increasing the availability of ammonia and, hence, indirectly increasing ammonium nitrate aerosol formation. We use the UM-UKCA composition-climate model, including the GLOMAP interactive aerosol microphysics module and a recently developed `hybrid' dissolution solver (HyDis), to investigate the size-resolved partitioning of ammonia and nitric acid to the particle phase over Europe in the period 1980 to 2010. Anthropogenic emissions of SO2, NOx and NH3 are included from the MACCity inventory and change by approximately -79%, -33% and +30% respectively over Europe in this time. We evaluate the UM-UKCA simulated 1980-2010 variability in nitrate, ammonium and sulphate aerosol mass concentrations and aerosol pH, with comparison to EMEP observations, and isolate the indirect influence of reduced SO2 emissions on nitrate formation. Preliminary sensitivity tests indicate that simulated nitrate aerosol concentrations over Europe were 8% higher in 2009 than they would have been if SO2 emissions had not been reduced. The implications of this change for air quality, aerosol acidity and regional climate will be presented.