Predicting the Orientation of the Bz Component of CMEs
Abstract
We present a step-by-step procedure to forecast the magnetic field vector B and more specifically the Bz component associated with the passage of the Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) at 1 AU via observational and modeling efforts. This is a fundamental component in determining the geo-effectiveness of Interplanetary (I)CMEs. We discuss a detailed observational and modeling investigation of pre-eruptive filament channels and filaments (prominences at the limb), the source regions of CMEs on the sun, to determine the direction of the tangential component of the magnetic field in the source region before CMEs (chirality), its evolution during CME deflection and rotation when filaments erupt. We analyze the local and global magnetic background near the CME source region to predict the possible changes in the CME orientation during the essential early stages of the eruption when magnetic pressure and tension of the surrounding field are still significant compared to that in the CME. The question we will answer: What is the direction of the magnetic field vector B in a pre-eruptive system, with emphasis on the axial field, and how does it evolve in the early stages of eruption in the low corona?
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFMSH14A..02P
- Keywords:
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- 2111 Ejecta;
- driver gases;
- and magnetic clouds;
- INTERPLANETARY PHYSICSDE: 2139 Interplanetary shocks;
- INTERPLANETARY PHYSICSDE: 7513 Coronal mass ejections;
- SOLAR PHYSICS;
- ASTROPHYSICS;
- AND ASTRONOMYDE: 7954 Magnetic storms;
- SPACE WEATHER