Necessity to Include Weak Events and to Review Results
Abstract
As is clear this cycle has not seen extreme geomagnetic storms, however, several minor ones with Dst -100 nT occurred. One thing that can be wrong is that we tend to look for spectacular events on the Sun to predict major impact on geo-space. In particular, the occurrence of an intense flare should not automatically wake up the forecasters unless a wide CME is associated. But then what is the significance of a wide or halo CME? This presentation tries to provide a scoreboard of what fraction of geomagnetic storms since 2013 was successfully predicted and satisfactorily explained in terms of solar activity. We emphasize the possibility of stealth CMEs without convincing disk signatures and filament eruptions near central meridian not observed as CMEs could cause the level of storms we have seen. It is also important to critically analyze false positives from the predictions based only on clear halo CMEs.
- Publication:
-
Solar Heliospheric and INterplanetary Environment (SHINE 2014)
- Pub Date:
- June 2014
- Bibcode:
- 2014shin.confE.170N