Fluctuations, Intermittency and Predictivity
Abstract
This chapter considers the various mechanisms capable of producing amplitude and duration variations in the various dynamo models introduced in Chap. 3 (10.1007/978-3-642-32093-4_3). After a survey of observed and inferred fluctuation patterns of the solar cycle, the effects on the basic cycle of stochastic forcing, dynamical nonlinearities and time delay are considered in turn. The occurrence of intermittency in a subset of these models is then investigated, with an eye on explaining Grand Minima observed in the solar activity record. The chapter closes with a brief discussion of solar cycle prediction schemes based on dynamo models.
- Publication:
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Saas-Fee Advanced Course
- Pub Date:
- 2013
- DOI:
- 10.1007/978-3-642-32093-4_4
- Bibcode:
- 2013SAAS...39..153C
- Keywords:
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- Physics