Prediction of expected global climate change by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time variation in near future based on solar magnetic field data
Abstract
In Dorman (2004) it was made estimation of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation in near future based on solar activity data prediction and determined parameters of convection-diffusion and drift mechanisms. This gave possibility to made prediction of expected part of global climate change, caused by long-term cosmic ray intensity variation. In this paper we use the model of cosmic ray modulation in the Heliosphere which considers a relation between long-term cosmic ray variations with parameters of the solar magnetic field. The later now can be predicted with good accuracy. By using this prediction, the expected cosmic ray variations in the near Earth space also can be estimated with a good accuracy. It is shown that there are two possibilities: 1) to predict cosmic ray intensity for 1-6 months by using a delay of long-term cosmic ray variations relatively to effects of the solar activity and 2) to predict cosmic ray intensity for the next solar cycle. For the second case the prediction of the global solar magnetic field characteristics is crucial. For both cases reliable long-term cosmic ray and solar activity data as well as solar magnetic field are necessary. For solar magnetic field we used results of two magnetographs (Stanford and Kitt Peak). The obtained by described method prediction on long-term cosmic ray intensity variation we used for estimation of expected part of global climate change caused by cosmic rays. These results we compare with obtained by different method in Dorman (2004). References: Dorman L.I. ``Estimation of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation in near future and prediction of expected global climate change''. Report on Session D2.1/C2.2/E3.1 of COSPAR-2004.
- Publication:
-
35th COSPAR Scientific Assembly
- Pub Date:
- 2004
- Bibcode:
- 2004cosp...35.3913B