A first step towards proton flux forecasting
Abstract
We present a preliminary version of a potential tool for real time proton flux prediction which provides proton flux profiles and cumulative fluence profiles at 0.5 MeV and 2 MeV of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events, from their onset up to the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the spacecraft position (located at 1 AU or 0.4 AU). Based on the proton transport model by Lario et al. (1998) and the MHD shock propagation model of Wu et al. (1983), we have generated a database containing "synthetic" profiles of the proton fluxes and cumulative fluences of 384 SEP events. These events describe different interplanetary scenarios which comprise a set of various MHD-shocks and several heliolongitude locations of the solar activity sites, as well as different conditions for particle transport. We are currently validating the applicability of this code for space weather forecasting by comparing the resulting "synthetic" flux profiles with those of several real SEP events. References: Lario D., Sanahuja B. and Heras A.M., 1998, Astrophys. J., 509, 415 Wu S.T., Dryer M., Han S.M., 1983, Solar Physics, 84, 395
- Publication:
-
34th COSPAR Scientific Assembly
- Pub Date:
- 2002
- Bibcode:
- 2002cosp...34E1078A