Long-term Galactic Cosmic Rays Variations and Their Relation With The Global Solar Magnetic Field Characteristics
Abstract
The rigidity spectrum of CR variations is evaluated from data of continuous monitor- ing of galactic cosmic rays (GCR), including ground based observations of neutron and general ionizing components by the network of CR stations, balloon and space- craft measurements of CR intensity in the stratosphere and the near space, for the whole period of the systematic CR ground based observations since 1953. Basing on these results the multi-parametric model of large scale GCR modulation by the solar activity in the heliosphere was elaborated (variations of particle density with 10 GV rigidity were considered). Characteristics of the global solar magnetic field on the so- lar wind source surface are main parameters of the model. Analyzing the model results it is possible to estimate a relative impact of each used indices accounting its delay to the observed CR modulation. A special method was used to account correctly the de- lay of solar-heliospheric characteristic effect on CR. The effect reveals a dependence on primary cosmic ray energy, an association with 11th and 22nd solar cycles. A solu- tion of this problem allows calculate CR variations with better accuracy and setup the problem of their prediction. A possibility of short-term predictions of GCR intensity by observations of particular CR stations, which data are available on Internet in real time, is considered in this work. A quality of such a prediction is discussed.
- Publication:
-
EGS General Assembly Conference Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- 2002
- Bibcode:
- 2002EGSGA..27.5528B